Marshall Abrams (University of Alabama) wi ll be giving his talk on Friday\, October 23\, 2015 in BUCH A202 at 3pm.
TITLE:
Probability in mechanistic explanation
ABSTRACT:
The widespread use of mechanism concepts in scientific research has been t
he focus of much work in recent philosophy of science. It's become clear th
at the widely-cited account of mechanistic explanation offered by Machamer\
, Darden\, and Craver\, and framed in terms of organized activities of enti
ties within mechanisms\, should be amended to allow activities to occur pro
babilistically. However\, there's been little discussion of the nature of t
he probabilities involved. Interpretations of probability (e.g. Bayesian\,
frequentist\, propensity\, mechanistic probability) specify ways that condi
tions in the world count as probabilities. Which interpretations of probabi
lity are consistent with the roles of mechanisms in science? I argue that r
elevant interpretations of probability must define what I call "causal prob
abilities"\, in which manipulation of properties that realize probabilities
would also manipulate frequencies of outcomes. In addition\, I argue that
some activities in mechanisms may involve only "imprecise probabilities" de
fined by sets of probability distributions. The role of activities in mecha
nisms allows us to simplify and broaden arguments by Terrence Fine and his
collaborators that the concept of imprecise probability found in some exten
ded Bayesian theories can also extend objective probability concepts. My pr
esentation won't take for granted familiarity with mathematical probability
theory\, philosophy of probability\, or philosophical discussions of mecha
nisms.
This event free and open to the public\, faculty\, staff and students
LOCATION:BUCH A202 GEO:49.269076;-123.254727 URL;VALUE=URI:https://philosophy.ubc.ca/events/event/oct-23-colloquia-marsh all-abrams-probability-in-mechanistic-explanation/ END:VEVENT BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:America/Vancouver BEGIN:DAYLIGHT TZOFFSETFROM:-0800 TZOFFSETTO:-0700 DTSTART:20150308T100000 TZNAME:PDT END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE END:VCALENDAR